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India’s Afghanistan policy is in peril now. There are no roads or rail-routes to connect Afghanistan’s mineral resources back to India. Chabahar-Zahedan rail line is no longer under India’s partnership. Iran will do it on its own.
Chabahar-Beheshti Port, which was signed by India for a 10-year Operating & developing contract is now doubtful. It may end up with Chinese hands. Meanwhile Pakistan is proposing to Iran to run a rail & road connectivity between Gwadar and Chabahar port, which are just few hundred kilometers apart.
China will buy Iran Oil for next 25-years, in addition to investing $280 billions in infrastructure projects, $120 billions on BRI rail project connecting back to China.
India is land-locked from Afghanistan resources, and had to work with both China and Iran. Earlier, Gwadar port in Blochistan ended up in Chinese hands, and all the efforts done so far by india in Baluchistan gone into awry.
However, the Iran deal was on the tables for quite some time , and it has been speeded up after excessive anti-China reactions by India’s Modi Government after Sino-Indian border skirmishes.
The reason for losing the rail line is missing financial commitment from India. The project was waiting for $400 millions infusion by India for several years. Chabahar Port development and a FTZ was also pending lacking of further investment for the last several years from India. India had signed a 10-year agreement to run the port by Modi’s favorite crony, Adani.
However, after US pulled out of Iran Nuclear deal, Trump went around threatening every country who had signed up projects with Jubilation after Iranian JCPOA deal. Modi suddenly stopped all financial transactions with Iran fearing Trump’s backlash (sanctions) and losing a place in Trump’s good books.
China made the moves to clinch a deal with Iran, placing a check-mate to India’s Afghanistan aspirations.
Prior to Modi, India knew it very well what a US sanctions means to a country. Earlier, when Pokhran Nuclear test was conducted by former President Kalam, US rushed to impose sanctions on India (Super 301) which lasts for a decades. Known major victims are Oil imports and Cryogenic Engine for PSLV rockets. Cryogenic Engine was successfully developed locally by ISRO. Iran lend a hand to sell Oil for barter and on rupee terms. Until Modi came to power India continue to buy Oil from Iran despite US sanctions on Iran. Iran believed India as a trusted partner. Now we know what Iran thinks.
This is an example of foreign policy debacle.
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